Plugging in the Crystal Ball

So, Marty and Mr. Partner tasked me with putting together some forecasting for the last quarter of 2009 and all of 2010. This really was a fair request, as I am closer to knowing what is going on than anyone else.

When I gave the info to Marty, he asked if this was my final estimate. I said, "Nope. I don't know who will leave next year. I don't know who will file bankruptcy. I don't know who will decide to become a compulsive gambler, house illegal aliens, sell drugs, have domestic violence issues, loose their job or just stop paying because they want to."

"Yea, that could be a problem." Marty agreed.

You would think something as mundane as rental properties wouldn't have so much drama. But, it only takes one tenant to have a life changing event and completely upend our plans for future growth. I can handle a broken water pipe. I am having a bit of trouble with the people.

Of course, it is this unknown that Marty and Mr. Partner are looking for. Here is what I can tell them: all but two homes are currently rented. I have one tenant that is teetering on the brink of trouble. All my other tenants are doing great. So, if the ones who are great stay great, the one teetering gets her act together or or leaves without incident and I can rent out the other two homes to quality people, yep, we are ok for next year.

That's how the first few years of our business ran. So, I know it can happen again.